📊 IHSG Weekly Analysis & 10 Stock Recommendations
Report Date: Monday, 11 May 2026 | Last Trading Day: Friday, 8 May 2026
1. IHSG WEEKLY SUMMARY (4–8 May 2026)
| Day | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 4 May | 6,971.95 | +0.22% |
| Tue 5 May | 7,057.11 | +1.22% |
| Wed 6 May | ~7,092* | ~+0.50% |
| Thu 7 May | 7,174.32 | +1.15% |
| Fri 8 May | 6,969.39 | -2.86% 🔴 |
Weekly: +0.18% (from 6,956.80) — but Friday erased all gains.
Key Market Statistics
- Market Cap: Rp12,406 T (+0.19% WoW)
- Avg Daily Volume: 45.86 B shares (+23.57%)
- Avg Daily Value (RNTH): Rp23.06 T (+26.14%)
- YTD Performance: -19.55% (as of end-April)
- 52-Week Range: 6,745 – 9,174
- All-Time High: 9,174.47 (Jan 2026)
2. FRIDAY CRASH ANALYSIS — What Caused the 2.86% Drop?
Friday's -204.93 point plunge was the deepest single-day correction among 7 Asian emerging markets. Key catalysts:
🔴 Primary Triggers:
- Royalty Hike Proposal — Govt plans progressive royalty increases on nickel, copper, gold, silver, tin & coal. Mining stocks hit hardest.
- US-Iran Conflict Escalation — Ceasefire talks collapsed, triggering risk-off across global markets.
- Rupiah Weakness — USD/IDR rose to Rp17,382 (+0.28%).
- FX Reserves Decline — April reserves fell to US$146.2B (lowest since July 2024), down from US$148.2B.
- Property Slowdown — Q1-2026 property price index grew just +0.62% YoY (slowest since 2003).
📉 Hardest-Hit Stocks (Friday):
| Stock | Drop | Close |
|---|---|---|
| TINS (Timah) | -14.88% ARB | Rp3,490 |
| INCO (Vale) | -13.89% | Rp5,425 |
| TPIA (Chandra Asri) | -10.20% | Rp5,725 |
| AMMN (Amman Mineral) | -7.20% | Rp4,640 |
3. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- Elliott Wave: Wave [v] of wave A of wave (2) — still in corrective phase
- MACD: Narrowing negative histogram (potential reversal signal)
- Stochastic RSI: Moving up from oversold territory
Key Levels for Monday (11 May):
| Scenario | Range |
|---|---|
| 🟢 Resistance | 7,207 – 7,418 |
| 🔴 Support | 6,921 – 6,838 |
| ⚠️ Worst Case | 6,645 – 6,838 |
Trading Economics Q2 Forecast: IHSG at 6,834.90
4. MARKET OUTLOOK & KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK
- MSCI Rebalancing — Announcement on 12 May 2026 (critical for foreign flow)
- Consumer Confidence Index — April data due this week
- Retail Sales & Motorcycle Sales — April data due
- Samuel Sekuritas 2026 Target: 7,500 (base), 8,000 (bull), 6,300 (bear)
- Key Assumption: Rupiah at Rp17,500/USD (base case)
5. 🔟 STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS (11 May 2026)
🏦 Banking & Financials (Defensive Core)
| # | Stock | Sector | Analyst | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BBRI | Banking | Pilarmas | Buy — strong Q1, dividend play |
| 2 | BBCA | Banking | Samuel (TP: Rp8,600) | Accumulate on weakness |
| 3 | BMRI | Banking | Samuel (TP: Rp5,700) | Dividend; early-May cum-date |
⛏️ Commodities & Energy (Oversold Bounce)
| # | Stock | Sector | Analyst | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | INCO | Nickel | MNC, BRIDS | Buy on weakness — oversold after -13.89% |
| 5 | AADI | Coal | MNC | Buy on weakness — strong fundamentals |
| 6 | ANTM | Gold/Metals | Samuel (TP: Rp4,600) | USD revenue hedge |
🛒 Consumer & Retail (Defensive)
| # | Stock | Sector | Analyst | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AMRT | Consumer Staples | Pilarmas | Defensive — Alfamart network |
| 8 | MAPA | Retail/Sports | MNC | Buy on weakness — MAP Group |
📡 Telco & Logistics (Growth)
| # | Stock | Sector | Analyst | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | TLKM | Telco | Pilarmas | Defensive yield — Telkomsel dominance |
| 10 | BULL | Shipping | MNC | Buy on weakness — tanker cycle |
📋 Bonus Picks (High Risk/Reward):
- DEWA (Mirae, TP: Rp800) — coal mining transformation story
- BRMS (Mirae) — gold production ramp-up
- JPFA (Mirae) — poultry/consumer, strong Q1 earnings
- ICBP (Samuel, TP: Rp11,000) — consumer defensive giant
- ISAT (Samuel, TP: Rp2,700) — telco consolidation play
- RAJA (BRIDS, TP: Rp7,000) — energy, high win-rate historically
6. STRATEGY GUIDANCE
| Profile | Approach |
|---|---|
| 🛡️ Conservative | BBRI, BBCA, TLKM, AMRT — defensive blue chips |
| ⚖️ Moderate | Add BMRI, AADI, MAPA, BULL |
| 🚀 Aggressive | INCO, ANTM (oversold bounce), DEWA, BRMS |
Key Risk: MSCI review delay → foreign outflow. Approach: Accumulate gradually, use buy-on-weakness, maintain cash buffer.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is informational analysis only, not investment advice. All decisions and risks are your own. Data sourced from IDX, MNC Sekuritas, Samuel Sekuritas, Pilarmas Investindo, Mirae Asset, BRI Danareksa, Bisnis.com, Liputan6, Kontan, and Investor.id.
Generated: 2026-05-11 01:30 UTC | AndreFinance 💸