📊 IHSG DAILY ANALYSIS — 18 MEI 2026 Data: Penutupan 13 Mei 2026 (sebelum libur) Bursa buka kembali hari ini ✅
📈 IHSG SNAPSHOT — SHORT WEEK 11-13 MAY
| Date | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 11 May | 6,905.62 | -0.92% |
| Tue 12 May | 6,858.90 | -0.68% |
| Wed 13 May | 6,723.32 | -1.98% |
Weekly Change: -213.07 pts (-3.53%) Prev Week Close: 6,936.39 Market Cap: Rp 11,825 T (-4.68% WoW) Avg Daily Value: Rp 18.82 T
Key Levels
Support: 6,700 → 6,650 → 6,538-6,585 (gap) Resistance: 6,758-6,777 → 6,870-6,895 → 7,000
🔥 SENTIMENT & CATALYSTS
🐻 Bearish:
- MSCI rebalancing: 6 stocks removed (AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, CUAN, AMRT)
- US CPI 3.8% (hot) → Fed higher for longer
- Rupiah ~Rp 17,500/USD
- Iran/Middle East tension
- "Sell in May" (only 33% win rate)
🐂 Bullish Mitigants:
- Solid Q1-2026 earnings (banking, commodities, consumer)
- Dividend season supporting liquidity
- Stochastic RSI approaching oversold (potential bounce)
- Stable CPO & coal prices
🏭 SEKTOR PERFORMANCE (13 MEI)
| Sektor | Change |
|---|---|
| ✅ Transportasi | +4.89% |
| ✅ Perindustrian | +1.26% |
| ❌ Barang Baku | -4.43% |
| ❌ Infrastruktur | -2.72% |
| ❌ Energi | -1.61% |
| ❌ Consumer Primer | -1.40% |
| ❌ Kesehatan | -1.22% |
| 💻 Teknologi | -0.71% |
| 🏘️ Properti | -0.70% |
| 🏦 Keuangan | -0.58% |
⭐ TOP 10 STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
1. BBCA — Bank Central Asia | 🔵 BUY Target: 8,600-12,500 (+39-102%) | Entry: 5,625-6,200 Superior ROE, defensive anchor, multi-analyst consensus
2. BMRI — Bank Mandiri | 🔵 BUY Target: 5,700 (+36%) Strong Q1 earnings, improving NPL, dividend yield
3. DEWA — Darma Henwa | 🟡 SPECULATIVE BUY Target: 800 (+78%) | Paling direkomendasi (Samuel, Mirae, MNC)
4. ISAT — Indosat | 🔵 BUY / Trading Buy Target: 2,700 (+20%) USD revenue hedge, post-merger synergies
5. BRMS — Bumi Resources Minerals | 🔵 BUY Target: 1,100 (+57%) Gold safe-haven play, production expansion
6. JPFA — Japfa Comfeed | 🔵 BUY Target: 3,750 (+56%) Defensive demand, poultry cycle improving
7. ICBP — Indofood CBP | 🔵 BUY Target: 11,000 (+29%) Market leader, pricing power, defensive moat
8. ADRO — Adaro Energy | 🔵 BUY — Dividend Play Target: 4,000 (+60%) Net cash position, potential special dividend
9. TLKM — Telkom Indonesia | 🔵 BUY Target: 4,200 (+50%) Data dominance, ARPU uplift, dividend yield
10. RAJA — Rukun Raharja | 🟡 SPECULATIVE BUY Target: 7,000 (+67%)
60% May win rate (10yr data), energy infra
📐 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
MACD: Bearish continuation Stoch RSI: Approaching oversold Trend: Lower lows — downtrend intact Wave: [v] of A of (2) — final correction leg
Scenarios Today (18 May)
| Skenario | Prob | Target |
|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bearish | 55% | Test 6,700 → 6,650 → 6,585 |
| 🟡 Sideways | 30% | 6,700-6,777 range |
| 🟢 Rebound | 15% | 6,758 → 6,870 |
Analyst Consensus: Phintraco: Uji 6,700-6,650 · MNC: Koreksi ke 6,644-6,711 · Pilarmas: Melemah terbatas
🧠 STRATEGI
Conservative: BBCA, BMRI, ICBP, TLKM (accumulate gradually) Moderate: ADRO, JPFA, ISAT, CMRY, UNVR (50% def + 50% cyclicals) Aggressive: DEWA, BRMS, RAJA, BIRD, WIFI (tight stops)
⚠️ Risk Rules:
- Keep 20-30% cash
- Stagger entries in 2-3 tranches
- 5-8% stop-loss
- Avoid MSCI-affected: AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, CUAN, AMRT
- Monitor USD/IDR
📡 Sources: Kontan, Bisnis.com, Samuel Sekuritas, Mirae Asset, BRI Danareksa, MNC Sekuritas, Phintraco, Pilarmas | AndreFinance 💸